China has already started deploying the newest Hangor-class submarines to the Pakistan Navy and may have officially announced an initial step towards a significant strategic shift in the maritime balance in South Asia, which defense analysts have been describing as a breakthrough.
The relocation acts as a major stride toward the strengthening military relationship between Beijing and Islamabad and may change the military dynamics of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
The Avalanche of the Deep Sea: Hangor Fleet
The Hangor-class submarines are diesel-electric Attack submarines which are designed following the Type 039A Yuan-class with Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) technology that enables it to remain submerged longer than the Type 039A submarines and operate in enemy waters without being noticed.
Defence sources indicate that the deal between China and Pakistan signed in 2015 comprises eight submarines. Four are under construction in China and the rest four are under construction at Karachi Shipyard and Engineering Works (KS and EW) under transfer of technology contract.
It is an over 5 billion valued project that is being defined as the largest among the entire defense purchases made in the history of Pakistan as it seeks to modernize its naval capacities in view of escalating threats in the region.
An Indian Strategic Problem
The experts are alarmed that the operational use of the Hangor-class submarines will reorient the balance of undersea warfare in the Arabian Sea. These submarines are a significant surveillance and defense threat to the Indian Navy due to their increased stealth, endurance as well as their ability to launch cruise missiles.
The procurement of AIP armed submarines would provide Pakistan with a one-step strategic deterrent, according to a retired Indian naval officer. It implies that they are able to patrol more, be invisible and precise in their attacks this is something India will need to consider in its maritime policy.
China’s Expanding Footprint
In the case of China, the transaction extends beyond the sale of defence equipment: it represents one of the many geopolitical contacts of the so-called Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). China, by supplying Pakistan with state-of-the-art submarines, is literally expanding its territory to the Indian Ocean, which is a significant region in world trade and energy pathways.
Analysts reckon this will bolster the so-called String of Pearls by China, which encircles India with a ring of ports and defence dealings between Gwadar and Djibouti.
Why It Matters
It is hoped that the Hangor-class submarines would improve the second-strike capability of Pakistan, which is a critical aspect of its deterrence posture. These submarines will most probably work in tandem with the Chinese presence in the sea once they become operational, which will provide Islamabad and Beijing with an integrated strategic advantage in the region.
This is also happening amid rising trends of naval modernisation in Asia, in which India, Australia and Japan are also strengthening their respective fleets under the Quad alliance to counter Chinese influence.
The Road Ahead
It is anticipated that this type of submarine will be in service in late 2025 and fully inducted in 2026. Pakistani naval staff are already being trained in China, making the transition of the vessels very smooth.
Although the official statements of the Pakistan Navy are scarce, the sources are indicators that the Hangor-class fleet will become the central part of the future Pakistan naval strategy that is based on stealth deterrence and dominance in the deep seas.
Bottom Line
The Hangor-class induction is one of the border moments of the maritime power of Pakistan and the strategic message to India. With the ability of the Chinese shipyards to silently produce these submarines, the Arabian Sea waters may soon experience a new form of underwater rivalry, a rivalry that can change the future of war at sea in South Asia.
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